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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the biggest shock.

But the current competition is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and recent also-rans improving together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical campaign!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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