Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
