Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a pivotal trip to Washington to meet American leader Donald Trump. This marks the initial face-to-face meeting for the two leaders following an extended period of escalating tensions and sharp rhetoric.
Topics for Talks
Venezuela, drug trafficking, oil, security, and American military actions on alleged drug vessels are set to be top on the list of topics when they meet at the White House on Tuesday.
Background of Strained Relations
Although the two men were polite in a telephone conversation following a recent American action, Petro has subsequently said he believes there is a "serious risk" of military action targeting Colombia. Trump, in turn, has previously remarked that a military operation in Colombia "sounds good".
Tuesday's meeting comes after months of the two leaders trading barbs. Petro has often criticised repeated US strikes on alleged drugs boats in the regional waters, as well as the White House's immigration policies.
"He changed his attitude," the US President was quoted as stating ahead of the Washington meeting.
Areas of Disagreement
From Washington's perspective, Trump has charged Petro's government of not doing enough to halt the flow of cocaine heading north, and has vowed to extend strikes to terrestrial objectives across the area.
But, the hostility seemed to subside following a "cordial" telephone conversation between the two presidents, which a Colombian official later characterized as an 180-degree turn "from both sides".
Mediating Role
According to insiders, a key figure – US Senator Rand Paul – was pivotal in facilitating the dialogue. "I have faith in diplomacy and I thought our ties were going in the wrong way," the senator reportedly. "And I'd like to see our relations to get better."
Border Security and the Guerrilla Group
Prior to Tuesday's meeting, Colombian stated that much of the discussion would focus on shared US and Colombian concerns over security in the neighboring country, with which Colombia has an extensive frontier.
Much of that border is under the sway of the ELN. This Colombian guerrilla group, founded in the 1960s, controls narco-trade, racketeering, smuggling, and illegal mining in frontier regions and reportedly collaborates with corrupt elements within the Caracas administration.
From the US perspective, addressing the threat of the ELN will be vital to guaranteeing safety for US companies engaged in Venezuela's energy sector. Analysts point out that the ELN has the potential to spoil investment plans by targeting international businesses and employees, as it has in the past done in Colombia.
Drug War Collaboration
An similarly urgent issue for the two leaders will be the fight against drug trafficking from Colombia, the global biggest producer of the narcotic. Earlier this year, Petro ordered a halt on information exchange with US security agencies after comments from Washington.
The US has, conversely, formally listed Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in combating drug trafficking. It has also enacted restrictions on Colombian officials, encompassing the president and his relatives.
"Combating the cocaine trade is impossible without Colombia," stated a analyst. "Any move to sever Colombian cooperation could also weaken all investigations."
Potential Outcomes
Despite multiple areas for collaboration, the potential for a clash exists. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," observed a ex-official. "My suspicion is that Petro will walk in with some offers to avert Trump's anger... But one never knows."
For the Colombian leader, even a contentious encounter could be advantageous. His time in office ends soon, and the results of the talks could impact the electoral chances of his chosen candidate.
"In some ways, he's kind of in a win-win situation," noted a regional expert. "A positive outcome undermines opposition arguments... If it doesn't, he's defending national sovereignty. He could turn that in his favour."
