A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
